PIG LIVESTOCK PRICE FLUCTUATIONS COMPARED TO CHICKEN, TURKEY, AND CATTLE PRICES FROM 2006–2022 IN POLAND

Main Article Content

Katarzyna Utnik-Banaś


Keywords : pigs, livestock price, time series, seasonality, cyclical fluctuations
Abstract

Aim: To present the type and level of fluctuations of pig livestock prices against chicken, turkey, and cat­tle price fluctuations from 2006 to 2022. Methods: The data consisted of a monthly time series of pig, broiler chicken, turkey, and cattle livestock prices from the Integrated Agricultural Market Information System (ZSRIR). Price fluctuations were analyzed by a time series decomposition using the Census X11 method. Results: Nominal prices of pig livestock have increased by 82% over the last seventeen years (2006–2022), while real prices have remained at the same level. Pig prices in 2006 were similar to those of turkeys, 50% higher than chickens and 45% lower than cattle. In 2022, pig prices were 20% lower than turkeys and 42% lower than cattle, while they were only 16% higher than chickens. The cyclical fluctua­tions accounted for 44%, seasonal for 42%, and random for 14% of the total annual fluctuations of pig prices. Conclusions: Pig prices fluctuated similarly to chicken prices. These two types of livestock are distinguished by a high seasonality of prices. Also, irregular changes affect pig and chicken prices more than cattle or turkey prices. From the point of view of price risk, the nature of the fluctuations is important. Regular seasonal fluctuations or long-term trends allow them to be considered in the decision-making process. On the other hand, short-term random fluctuations and medium-term changes with a large devia­tion from the expected price level represent a risk.

Article Details

How to Cite
Utnik-Banaś, K. (2024). PIG LIVESTOCK PRICE FLUCTUATIONS COMPARED TO CHICKEN, TURKEY, AND CATTLE PRICES FROM 2006–2022 IN POLAND. Acta Scientiarum Polonorum. Oeconomia, 23(4), 23–32. https://doi.org/10.22630/ASPE.2024.23.4.15
References

Abdulai, A. (2002). Using threshold cointegration to esti¬mate asymmetric price transmission in the Swiss pork market. Applied Economics, 34(6), 679–687. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840110054035 (Crossref)

Assa, H., Wang, M. (2021). Price Index Insurances in the Agriculture Markets. North American Actuarial Journal, 25(2), 286–311. https://doi.org/10.1080/10920277.2020.1755315 (Crossref)

Assefa, T.T., Meuwissen, M.P., Oude Lansink, A.G. (2017). Price risk perceptions and management strategies in selected European food supply chains: an exploratory approach. NJAS: Wageningen Journal of Life Sciences, 80(1), 15–26. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.njas.2016.11.002 (Crossref)

Babula, R.A., Miljkovic, D. (2016). Assessing the role of futures position substitutability in a monthly slaugh¬tered pork factor demand by US processors: a coin¬tegrated VAR model approach. Applied Economics, 48(26), 2454–2468. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2015.1122734 (Crossref)

Bakucs, L.Z., Fertö, I. (2009). Marketing and Pricing Dy¬namics in the Presence of Structural Breaks: The Hun¬garian Pork Market. Journal of International Food & Agribusiness Marketing, 21(2–3), 116–133. https://doi.org/10.1080/08974430802587638 (Crossref)

Bergevoet, R., Hoste, R., Verweij-Novikova, I., Jongeneel Roel, Gonzalez Martinez, A., Hennen, W. (2020). Future of pig production in Romania. Options for governmental policy. Retrieved from https://library.wur.nl/WebQuery/wurpubs/fulltext/513715 [accessed: 07.02.2023].

Boroumand, R.H., Goutte, S., Porcher, S., Porcher, T. (2017). Jumps and volatility dynamics in agricultural commod¬ity spot prices. Applied Economics, 49(40), 4035–4054. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2016.1273507 (Crossref)

Carsten, H., and Stephan, C.-T. (2013). Trade, market in¬tegration and spatial price transmission on EU pork markets following Eastern enlargement. Retrieved from https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/187598 [accessed: 05.02.2023].

Čechura, L., Šobrová, L. (2008). The price transmission in pork meat agri-food chain. Agricultural Economics – Czech, 54(2), 77–84. https://doi.org/10.17221/272-AGRICECON (Crossref)

Chow, G.C., 1960. Tests of equality between sets of coef¬ficients in two linear regressions, Econometrica, 28(3), 591–605. https://doi.org/10.2307/1910133 (Crossref)

Dittmann, P. (2008). Prognozowanie w przedsiębiorstwie. Metody i ich zastosowanie (Forecasting in the enter¬prise. Methods and their application). Oficyna Wolters Kluwer Business, Kraków.

Goodwin, B.K., Harper, D.C. (2000). Price transmission, threshold behavior, and asymmetric adjustment in the US pork sector. Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 32(3), 543–553. (Crossref)

GUS (2023). Główny Urząd Statystyczny – dane statystyc¬zne (Statistics Poland data). Retrieved from https://stat.gov.pl/obszary-tematyczne/ceny-handel/wskazniki-cen/ [accessed: 15.03.2023].

Gujarati, D. (2003). Basic econometrics. McGraw-Hill, New York.

Hamulczuk, M. (2006). Powiązania cen wieprzowiny w Polsce z cenami europejskimi (Connection of domes¬tic pork prices with European Prices). Prace Nauk. Aka¬demii Ekonomicznej we Wrocławiu, 1118, 299–304.

Hamulczuk, M. (2014). Ryzyko cenowe a zmienność cen i relacji cenowych w rolnictwie (Price risk and volatil¬ ity of prices and price ratios in agriculture). Roczniki Naukowe Rolnictwa i Rozwoju Obszarów Wiejskich, 101(4), 54–67. (Crossref)

Hamulczuk, М. (2020). Market integration in the EU pork market – evidence from Panel ESTAR Models. Ikonomi¬ka i upravlenie na selskoto stopanstvo, 65(4), 91–98.

Havlícek, J., Dömeová, L., Smutka, L., Rezbová, H., Severová, L., Šubrt, T., Šrédl, K., Svoboda, R. (2020). Efficiency of pig production in the Czech Republic and in an international context. Agriculture, 10(12), 597. https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture10120597 (Crossref)

Hodrick, R., Prescott, E.C. (1997). Postwar, U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 29, 1–16. (Crossref)

Holst, C., Cramon-Taubadel, S. (2013). Trade, Market In¬tegration and Spatial Price Transmission on EU Pork Markets following Eastern Enlargement. Econstor, 35. http://dx.doi.org/10.22004/ag.econ.187598

Holt, M.T., Moschini, G. (1992). Alternative measures of risk in commodity supply models: An analysis of sow farrowing decisions in the United States. Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 171, 1–12.

Hoste, R. (2020). International comparison of pig produc¬tion costs 2018: results of InterPIG, Wageningen. Re¬trieved from https://library.wur.nl/WebQuery/wurpubs/fulltext/511876 [accessed: 15.03.2023]. (Crossref)

Idzik, M. (2009). Analiza struktury szeregów czasowych cen produktów rolnych (Analysis of the time series structure of agricultural prices) [In:] M. Hamulczuk, S. Stańko (eds), Zarządzanie ryzykiem cenowym a możliwości stabilizowania dochodów producentów rolnych − aspe¬kty poznawcze i aplikacyjne (Price risk management and the possibilities of stabilizing the income of agricultural producers – cognitive and application aspects). Pub¬likacje Programu Wieloletniego 2005–2009, IERiGŻ-PIB, Warszawa, 148, 15–47.

Miller, D.J., Hayenga, M.L. (2001). Price cycles and asym¬metric price transmission in the US pork market. Ameri¬can Journal of Agricultural Economics, 83(3), 551–562. https://doi.org/10.1111/0002-9092.00177 (Crossref)

Öhlund, E., Hammer, M., Björklund, J. (2017). Managing conflicting goals in pig farming: farmers’ strategies and perspectives on sustainable pig farming in Swe¬den. International Journal of Agricultural Sustainabil¬ity, 15(6), 693–707. https://doi.org/10.1080/14735903.2017.1399514 (Crossref)

Olszańska, A. (2012). Rynek żywca w Polsce (1955−2010) – zmiany strukturalne, koncentracja produkcji i wa¬hania podaży (The livestock market in Poland (1955––2010) – structural changes, production concentration and supply fluctuations). Monografie i opracowania, 214. Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu, Wrocław.

Ramanathan, R. (2002). Introductory econometrics with applications. Harcourt College Publishers, San Diego.

Ravn, M.O., Uhlig, H. (2002). On adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott filter for the frequency of observations. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 84(2), 371–376. https://doi.org/10.1162/003465302317411604 (Crossref)

Schulz, L. (2020). Seasonal hog price patterns. Retrieved from https://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/livestock/pdf/b2-14.pdf [accessed: 14.03.2024].

Serra, T., Gil, J.M., Goodwin, B.K. (2006). Local polynomial fitting and spatial price relationships: price transmission in EU pork markets. European Review of Agricultural Economics, 33(3), 415–436. https://doi.org/10.1093/erae/jbl013 (Crossref)

Shiskin, J., Young, A.H., Musgrave, J.C. (1967). The X-11 Variant of the Census Method II Seasonal Adjustment Program. Technical paper 15. US Government Printing Office, Washington, DC, USA. Retrieved from https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/work¬ing-papers/1967/adrm/shiskinyoungmusgrave1967.pdf [accessed: 14.03.2023].

Sirohi J., Hloušková Z., Bartonová K., Malec K., Maitah M., Koželský R. (2023). The vertical price transmis¬sion in pork meat production in the Czech Republic. Agriculture, 13, 1274. https://doi.org/10.3390/agricul¬ture13061274 (Crossref)

Stańko, S. (2008). Tendencje w produkcji, handlu zagranic¬znym i konsumpcji wieprzowiny w Polsce w latach 1990–2007. Roczniki Naukowe SERiA, 10(4), 401–404.

Stańko, S. (2013). Prognozowanie w agrobiznesie, teo¬ria i przykłady zastosowania (Forecasting in agribusi¬ness, theory and application examples). Wydawnictwo SGGW, Warszawa.

Szymańska, E., Tatarczak, E. (2010). Zmiany produkcji oraz cen żywca wieprzowego i zbóż w Polsce w latach 1995––2008 (Changes in production and prices of pig live¬stock and cereals in Poland in 1995–2008). Zagadnienia Ekonomiki Rolnej, 4, 146–158.

Szymańska, E. (2012). Zmienność koniunktury na rynku trzody chlewnej w Polsce (The business cycle volatil¬ity of Poland’s hog market). Roczniki Naukowe SERiA, 14(1), 524–528.

Utnik-Banaś, K. (2012). Analiza szeregu czasowego cen żywca brojlerów w latach 1991−2011 (Time series anal¬ysis for price of broiler chicken livestock in the years 1991–2011). Metody Ilościowe w Badaniach Ekonom¬icznych, 13(1), 224–233.

Utnik-Banaś, K. (2017a). The variability of turkey livestock price and its relation with the price of chickens, pork, and beef in 2006–2015. Quantitative Methods in Eco¬nomics, 18(1), 134–142. (Crossref)

Utnik-Banaś, K. (2017b). Zmienność cen mięsa kurcząt brojlerów w krajach Unii Europejskiej w latach 2007–2016 (Variability of Broiler Chicken Prices in European Union Countries in the Period 2007–2016). Problemy Rolnictwa Światowego, 17(32), 2, 287–297. (Crossref)

Utnik-Banaś, K., Żmija, J. (2018). The geese market in Poland. Roczniki Naukowe SERiA, 20(3), 157–163. https://doi.org/10.5604/01.3001.0012.1531 (Crossref)

ZSRIR (2016). Zintegrowany System Rolniczej Informacji Rynkowej (Integrated Agricultural Market Information System). Retrieved from http://www.minrol.gov.pl/pol/Rynki-rolne [accessed: 12.03.2023].

Xu, S., Li, Z., Cui, L., Dong, X., Kong, F., Li, G. (2012). Price transmission in China’s swine industry with an application of MCM. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 11(12), 2097–2106. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2095-3119(12)60468-7 (Crossref)

Wan, X., Li, C. (2022). Asymmetric price volatility trans¬mission in agricultural supply chains: Evidence from the Chinese pork market. Mathematical Problems in Engi¬neering, 801898, 1–11. https://doi.org/10.1155/2022/4801898 (Crossref)

Zivot, E., Andrews, D.W.K. (1992). Further evidence on the great crash, the oil-price shock, and the unit root hypoth¬esis. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 10(3), 251–270. https://doi.org/10.2307/1391541 (Crossref)

Statistics

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.
Recommend Articles