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Harold Utouh
Augustino Tile

Keywords : Toda-Yamamoto Granger causality, autoregressive model, FDI inflow, real GDP, nominal exchange rate, capital stock

Aim: The paper aims to examine the relationship between FDI and the nominal exchange rate, real GDP, and capital stock in Tanzania using quantitative research methods and an econometric analysis. The analysis aims to provide insights into the factors that affect FDI and contribute to the existing literature on the relationship between FDI and economic growth. Methods: This study examines the relationship between FDI inflow, real GDP, capital stock, and the normal exchange rate in Tanzania using a robust research methodology. The study employs STATA 15 software and Akaike’s Information Criteria (AIC), Schwarz Information Criteria (SC), Final Prediction Error (FPE), and the Hannan Quinn (HQ) Information Criteria. In addition, the autoregressive model, the Johansen co-integration test, and the Toda-Yamamoto Granger causality (modified WALD) test were employed to determine the optimal lag. Results: The results indicate a bidirectional relationship between the nominal exchange rate and FDI in Tanzania, with FDI inflows influencing the nominal exchange rate volatility and vice versa. Furthermore, the results indicate that real GDP, capital stock, and the nominal exchange rate exert a unidirectional influence on FDI influx in Tanzania. Conclusions: The nominal exchange rate and capital stock have positive and negative correlations with foreign direct investment. Like many other African economies, Tanzania remains vulnerable to external forces despite making significant strides in stabilizing the exchange rate. It is recommended that the Central Bank of Tanzania – along with those of other African nations with similar economic structures – maintain a stable nominal exchange rate level as an incentive for foreign investors in order to increase the inflow of foreign direct investment.

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