Acta Scientiarum Polonorum. Oeconomia

INFLATION VS INFLATION EXPECTATIONS IN 2020–2021 – THE IMPACT OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC

Maria Dunin-Wąsowicz — Sun, 30 Jun 2024 00:00:00 +0000

Aim: During the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020–2021, there was a significant increase in inflation and inflation expectations due to the government policies of the United States (US) and the European Union (EU), including the Euro Area (EA). With that being said, the evolving situation within these three political-economic areas highlights the importance of understanding the relationship between inflation and inflation expectations, as perceived by both consumers and professional forecasters. The purpose of this article is to analyze the changes in these phenomena, using descriptive survey’ data analysis and a hybrid model of inflation expectations. Methods: The research methods refer to the descriptive survey data analysis that provides evidence on the long-term courses of inflation in the US, the EU, and the EA, as well as the consumers’ and professional forecasters’ inflation expectations within the period 1999–2019. A hybrid model of inflation expectations has been used to estimate this data during the period of 2021. The study correlates and compares the findings of both types of research. Results: The results demonstrate that during the pandemic, the evidence supports the occurrence of periodic medium-high inflation in the studied economic areas. Inflation expectations in the US and the EU were periodically weakly anchored, although they were stabilized in the EA. Conclusions: The research, conducted by analyzing price trends and their expected trajectories over various timeframes, revealed consistent patterns. These patterns highlighted similarities in anticipated price changes before and during the pandemic.

EFFICIENCY OF ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION EXPENDITURE OF GENERAL GOVERNMENT IN EUROPEAN UNION MEMBER STATES IN THE CONTEXT OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN WASTE MANAGEMENT

Magdalena Jarczok-Guzy, Jan Kaczmarzyk, Edyta Sugut — Sun, 30 Jun 2024 00:00:00 +0000

Aim: Pursuing sustainable development justifies incurring expenditure in the field of environmental protection because the state’s active fiscal policy is an essential determinant of achieving sustainable development goals. The distribution of public funds should depend on the efficiency of their use. The purpose of the research procedure is (1) to analyze the structure of environmental protection expenditure of the general government in the European Union and the individual Member States; (2) to assess the efficiency of environmental protection expenditure of the general government in the implementation of sustainable development goals in waste management. Methods: The study uses linear regression with regression confidence bounds. The indicator chosen to assess the efficiency of expenditure was the Recycling rate of municipal waste (SDG_11_60). Results: The structure of environmental protection expenditure of the general government in most Member States in 2012–2021 was stable, which may result from the adopted national environmental policies or internal conditions of a given country. Waste management expenditure dominates the structure of environmental protection expenditure of the general government in many countries. The analysis of the efficiency of environmental protection expenditure of the general government in waste management confirmed its efficiency in a significant number of states. Conclusions: The research procedure indicated that positive relations between general spending on the environment and achieving sustainable goals can be confirmed. Unfortunately, there is a problem with data consistency of various indicators measuring sustainable goals. Therefore, extending such research to a multiple factor case, for example, can be difficult.

PRO-INFLATIONARY SIGNIFICANCE OF ENERGY COMMODITY AND ELECTRICITY PRICES

Dominik Katarzyński, Grzegorz Przekota — Sun, 30 Jun 2024 00:00:00 +0000

Aim: The main aim of this article is to evaluate the influence of electricity prices on the overall economic price level. Methods: The research methodology was carefully designed to encompass various analytical tools, including the graphical representation of data, basic statistical analyses, the computation of the Pearson correlation coefficient with consideration of time lags, and the application of the Granger causality test. Results: The outcomes of the study revealed a significant inefficiency within the market mechanism. Contrary to expectations, the anticipated correlation between electricity prices and inflation (PPI and CPI) indices was found to be statistically insignificant. However, among the examined relationships, a strong and noteworthy connection emerged between coal prices and the PPI inflation index, particularly with a distinct two-month lag in this correlation. Conclusions: Drawing conclusions from the analysis, it became evident that while energy commodity prices, such as coal, do not directly translate into electricity prices and subsequently influence inflation, coal prices do emerge as a significant predictor of inflation. This observation suggests a gap in the intermediate stage of the production cycle, shedding light on a pronounced market inefficiency. The significance of these findings extends beyond the narrow scope of the energy sector. They provide a broader perspective on pricing relationships in the economy, highlighting the limited impact of the market price of electricity on shaping the overall price level. This nuanced understanding constitutes a noteworthy and valuable contribution to the field of economic research, emphasizing the multifaceted dynamics that underlie pricing mechanisms in a complex economic system.

ENERGY INDEPENDENT CITIES? INVESTMENT ACTIVITY OF CITIES IN THE IMPLEMENTATION OF EU CO-FINANCED PROJECTS IN RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES AND ITS CONDITIONS IN POLAND

Agnieszka Kozera, Aldona Standar — Sun, 30 Jun 2024 00:00:00 +0000

Aim: The main objective of the paper is to evaluate the scale, scope, and significance of investments in renewable energy sources by cities in Poland, which were co-financed from EU funds. This assessment will focus on the last two multiannual financial frameworks, namely for the years 2007–2013 and 2014–2020. Methods: Empirical studies were conducted based on data from the database of the Ministry of Development Funds and Regional Policy in Poland, the Local Data Bank, and the Ministry of Finance. When investigating the investment activity of towns and cities related to renewable energy sources, basic descriptive statistics methods were applied. Logistic regression was used to identify the primary socio-economic, financial, and environmental conditions. Results: In the analyzed period, the role of towns and cities in the realization of renewable energy projects increased, although it is still relatively limited compared to other types of administrative communes. In the multiannual financial framework for 2007–2013, less than one in ten cities executed at least one project, while in the years 2014–2020, more than one in four cities realized at least one project related to the development of renewable energy sources supported by EU funds. The disparity in activity between towns and cities on a regional scale was huge. These investments were more often realized by towns and cities with a lower level of development, serving tourist functions, and experienced in carrying out such investments. Their lower investment activity was influenced by their level of indebtedness. Conclusions: So far, one of the main drivers behind the development of renewable energy in urban areas has been the ecological aspect, particularly the improvement of air quality. However, there is now a growing recognition of the importance of energy security.